Surgery, Gastroenterology and Oncology
Vol. 26, No. 4, Dec 2021
Comparative Analysis of Scoring Systems for Predicting Mortality in Acute Pancreatitis
Anurag Lavekar, Aditi Deshpande, Swarali Tadwalkar
ORIGINAL PAPER, Dec 2021
Article DOI: 10.21614/sgo-26-4-303
Background: In the view of need for early identification of cases of Acute Pancreatitis [AP] who may end up dying in spite of rigorous treatment measures, many scores have been proposed claiming to be superior in doing so. This study compares 5 newer scores which are possible to be assessed in first few hours of admission with mortality as outcome.

Methods: It's a retrospective study of 200 consecutive cases of first episodes of AP in a tertiary care centre in India. Scores were compared at their optimal cut off values by sensitivity, specificity, Positive and Negative predictive Values and Odds ratios.

Results: This study showed maximum sensitivity of mortality prediction by HAPS, but best PPV by CTSI. Best specificity was achievable by HAPS.

Conclusion: The newer scores have a reliable predictive capability for mortality outcome at earlier stage of management, irrespective of severity of AP.

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Abstract:   Abstract EN
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Journal Abbreviation: Surg. Gastroenterol. Oncol.

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